Ratings vs. sales.

Before he uttered his first four-letter word on Sirius satellite radio this morning, Howard Stern had already paid for himself. Well, close enough to earn his 200-plus million dollars in Sirius's $7.00-or-so-a-share stock. In this new medium, the listeners get counted up front. Over a million people subscribed to Sirius because of Howard--they can prove it, or at least they're satisfied enough with the count that they handed over the stock. By my arithmetic, at $15 a month, those listeners are worth $180,000,000 to Sirius in 2006, directly attributable to Howard. Sirius's $80M in the black on Howard. Any ads they sell are gravy.

Compare that to how success is measured in the Arbitron world, sometimes known as steel-tower radio. In most markets, Arbitron is sampling all the time and reporting quarterly, maybe a quarter behind. The return on the station's investment can't even be measured until sometime next year.

Digital media's ability to track every click or every tune-in back to each and every listener-clicker is already making advertisers restless with Marconi radio. No wonder Clear Channel wants a new ratings system. But is there anything out there that'll even come close to being wired to your audience? Certainly not Arbitron's new, still testing, Peoplemeter, the little box that listens to what you're listening to from its holster on your belt. It'll still be carried by members of a sample of the willing, not every listener out there. As I've asked before, whatever happened to that guy with the truck with the antenna who used to sit on overpasses, picking up all the radio tuners as they sped past below and issuing ratings reports. Is the Peoplemeter more credible?