I've been getting AllAccess.com's daily emails for maybe ten years. I do believe Joel Denver and his staff do their best to reflect radio thinking, and give radio management people what they want. But I think it's way past time for an overhaul in how radio people think about ARBITRON, or whatever statistical system replaces it, in that unlikely event. Take today's ratings email, reporting summer ARBITRENDS as they come in--a dicey proposition at best.
Headlines:
Tulsa: "CR KJSR jumps 3 positions to 3rd."
Dehype analysis: May-June-July 05 -- 5.4 ---- June-July-August -- 6.5
This jump measured 0.9 of 1 percent. Baby step.
Chattanooga: "AAA WDOD leaps from 8th to 5th"
Dehype analysis: MJJ 05 -- 3.8 --- JJA -- 4.3
The length of this leap: 0.5 of 1 percent. Barely a shuffle.
Exciting movements? I don't think so. What caused the leap, a different diary from the south side of Tulsa, replacing one from North Tulsa?
Leaving aside the fact that this is incomplete data--these are ARBI-TRENDS, folks--how can anybody pop champagne corks or unsheath the hari kari sword over fractional changes, up or down? Yet AllAccess assumes something like that is going on. And I think so, too. My question for radio guys: can you go cold turkey on thin-sliced baloney?
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1 comment:
Dave,
Actually they are big moves. If you're in sales, moving into the top 3 or 5 means major $$$. Remember, you're looking at 12+. That's a family reunion. No radio is sold that way. In the target demo, the moves could be much more.
Fig
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